Royals Outpost

The heart-felt musings of a Kansas City Royals fan who isn't always right, or logical, but does always care.

25.12.05

Player Interrogation: Jeremy Affeldt/Denny Bautista/Runelvys Hernandez

Guess who got stuck workin' on Christmas. I feel like Peter in Office Space. I hope somebody sets the building on fire ..

But unlike Peter, I love this job. I decided that, in the spirit of Christmas, I would tack on not one, but two extra Player Interrogations today. 'Tis better to give than receive .. hate mail.

Up first, Jeremy Affeldt. This .. should be interesting. I have some very harsh, although biased, feelings about the guy, so this might not be the most efficient scribing ever done. You've been warned.

I will start by saying that Affeldt is a tall left-handed pitcher whose fastball runs to 94 with bite, and whose curveball is a very live 12-6 yakker. When he's on his game, he misses bats with regularity and forces several choppy grounders and ineffectual pop-ups. And at 26, he is hardly without room for improvement. That said ..

Affeldt's minor league totals have not given any indication that he has the ability or even the potential to be even an average major league pitcher. His career ERA in the minors is 4.03, and in spite of the impressive strikeout rate of 7.28 per nine innings, he has allowed more than a hit per inning, which is very rare and concerning when it comes to a hard-throwing lefty, and his WHIP is 1.45.

When a young pitching prospect is rushed from the low minors to the parent club, it's a concern. When said pitching prospect didn't overwhelm in the low minors to begin with, it's alarming. Affeldt was in KC before he had pitched an inning at AAA, posting a 4.64 in 2002, mostly in relief, along with a stinker of a 1.57 WHIP. His 2003 was much better, where his walk rate dropped, and his WHIP plummeted to 1.30. But KC as a team was a phenomenon in 2003, and while I don't want to void Affeldt's accomplishments that year entirely, they must have had a substantial influence on them.

Then the trouble with blisters really flared up in 2004, forcing him into a nearly full-time reliever. He came on relatively strong toward the end of 2004 as the team's closer by default, leading many to believe he'd found his calling as a dart-throwing lefty stopper. Again, Affeldt struggled, missing the early stages of the 2005 season due to injury, struggling mightily at Omaha (6.48 ERA in nine appearances, 8.1 IP), and receiving the call-up in spite of that. His 5.26 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 49 relief showings were the worst of his professional career.

So, what to do with Affeldt. He has floundered as a starting pitcher due to high pitch counts and waning effectiveness too early in the game, along with blister issues. He was even worse as a reliever, and with the KC bullpen flourishing into our strongest asset, he is of little used to us there, with Andrew Sisco already holding the title of flame-throwing lefty. He is still young, but that only strengthens the case for trading him. There are obviously several teams who believe they can handle him with more success than we have. At this point, I'm prepared to see if that's true.

A'right, second go-around, let's do this thing.

I'll begin by saying that if we had managed to bring Jason Grimsley back for another stint in KC (he ultimately signed with Arizona), it would have brought the Bautista deal full circle. It was back in 2004 that we traded Jason Grimsley, an ailing right-handed reliever, to Baltimore for Denny Bautista, a gangly kid from the DR with waffle iron hands and a bender of a curve.

Last April, Denny Bautista's first start of the year came in Anaheim, where he faced Vladimir Guerrero, one of the best-known players from his country. Bautista would grab the spotlight that night, not his countrymen, as he pitched eight masterful innings, allowing just one run on three hits, and striking out eight. Vlad went 0-4, and struck out twice. (Sidenote: Jeremy Affeldt nearly blew the game in the ninth.)

Denny's season was derailed by shoulder maladies prematurely, but it only took an outing like that to show why that trade was such a terrific one for KC. His fastball is blistering, his curveball nearly wraps around the hitter's head before diving back down toward the plate, and an offspeed pitch is being honed. Everything he throws has movement or tilt, mostly because of his height, the whipping action of his pitching motion, and his very long, lean fingers. Bautista is the only power starting pitcher in the organization, so we desperately need him to succeed if KC is to advance in the next few years.

However, his delicate mechanics have been a problem to keep intact already in his brief tenure with the Kansas City organization, leading to control struggles, as well as displaced stress on his arm. After getting short-changed on high-level experience in '05, the Royals are clearly intent on returning him to Omaha for at least the start of '06, and after the recent addition of Joe Mays, probably the entirety of it. While Bautista has been allowed just 13 innings of AAA ball to date, he is 25, and needs to be in the show at some point this year.

Bautista has also been mentioned as a suggested candidate to be converted to a reliever, but with the recent saturation of quality young relievers, along with Mike MacDougal reclaiming the job that should have been waiting for him, there is no longer need or room for Bautista there. Some seasoning in Omaha is the right call, but if he's mowing down more than a batter per inning in June/July, the Royals can't afford to deny him further major league experience. In my eyes, this guy is nearly as important as Zack Greinke.

C'mon Adrian, cut me, I gotta get back out there .. cut me!

No anecdote for Runelvys, I'm afraid, in spite of his unique first name.

Also by way of the Dominican Republic (although neither Denny nor Runelvys have been cleared to play for their native country in the World Baseball Classic, unfortunately), Runelvys has only his homeland in common with Denny. He's shorter and rather portly. The added bulk adds no zip to his repertoire, however. His fastball lives from 88-91, with minimal movement. His breaking ball was a useful pitch ahead in the count from time to time, but it was all too often a good way for him to get creamed. His changeup was what allowed him to pitch even 159.2 mediocre innings, as he was able to deploy it at nearly any point in the count with confidence.

Some will say that making it through 2005 as well as he did coming off of Tommy John surgery was an accomplishment on it's own terms. I disagree. Ex-pitching coach Guy Hansen took the time and effort to comment on Runelvys in spring training, and he said he'd never heard Hernandez pop Buck's glove like that before. Of course, Runelvys had never worked with Buck before to begin with, but we knew what he was getting at. He might have tired as the season wore on, but so do all pitchers, it's in the job description. That fish ain't flyin'.

I can't say I'm sure why Runelvys is considered an important cog in the future KC engine. His 7.97 K/9 ratio in the minors has not carried over to the majors (5.00), his walk rate remains a concern .. the only serious trait he garners is the fact that he tends to keep the ball in the yard, but that will only carry a guy so far. He doesn't take very good care of himself, so injury is likely to rear it's ugly head again, unless he trades in the see-food diet for the Atkins diet. On top of it all, he will be 28 in April, so it's not like he's got a ton of room left to improve. Marginal stuff along with marginal control on top of that have led me to question why he's already penciled into the rotation. He should be the one doomed to Omaha this spring, not Bautista. At least .. that's my take on things. Maybe I'm just a quack.

Man oh man, that was quite a feat, if I do say so. I thank you all for reading along, and wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, and Joyous Kwanzaa!

Up next: Mike MacDougal

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